Which parties are gaining or losing support?
To provide the best estimate of current voting intentions, the Poll Tracker combines data from all major public opinion polls into a weighted average. According to the latest data:
Éric Grenier on the polls:
If an election were held today, who would win?
There will be 338 seats in the next House of Commons. A party needs to win 170 seats to form a majority government. Each federal electoral riding corresponds to one seat. The Poll Tracker estimates the most likely number of seats each party could win if an election were held today, based on current polling levels.
170 seats needed to win majority
Seat projections (regional breakdown)
What do the regional results look like and how does that compare to last election?
Below are the regional breakdowns of the most recent seat projection. The number of seats in each province (and region) is largely determined by the proportion of the Canadian population that lives there. Due to population changes since the last election, seats have been added to B.C., Alberta, Ontario and Quebec, increasing the total number of seats in the House of Commons to 338 from 308.
List of polls
Where does the data come from?
All major opinion polls used in the Poll Tracker are listed below in reverse-chronological order. Click on the poll name to view the original source.
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- 1 “Poll” refers to the polling company that conducted the survey, the media outlet that commissioned the poll or was given exclusivity on publishing the results, and the dates over which the poll was conducted. ↩
- 2 “Weight” refers to the weight that the poll carries in the national polling averages projection. ↩
- 3 “Sample Size” refers to the total number of respondents interviewed. ↩
- 4 “Method” refers to the mode of contact of the polls. ↩
- TEL: Polls conducted via the telephone with live operators conducting the interviews with randomly-dialled respondents.
- IVR: Polls conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions are played for randomly-dialled respondents and answers are given via the telephone keypad.
- NET: Polls conducted via the Internet. In most cases, respondents come from a panel of Canadians recruited in various ways, including over the telephone. Because these samples are not probabilistic or random, a margin of error does not apply to them.
- 5 “Margin of Error” (MOE) is stated as a percentage, 19 times out of 20.↩